Carbon Offset Pricing Trends: What Buyers Should Budget for in 2025

Have you looked at the voluntary carbon market lately? Then you know that the price of carbon offsets is complex and volatile, making it tough to pick projects and plan budgets.

In this article, we address these issues by explaining why carbon market prices vary so widely, what you can expect to pay for nature-based and CDR credits in 2025, how perceived credit quality impacts pricing, how to budget in turbulent buying conditions, and more.

Why carbon offset prices vary so widely

Carbon credit markets are impacted by a range of factors, from project type and methodology to geography and even buyer intent. Let's take a closer look at each:

• Project quality: The higher a project’s quality, i.e. integrity,  in terms of its rating and alignment with standards, the higher its market price will be.
• Project type: Nature-based carbon offset projects produce cheaper credits than technology-based carbon offset projects. This is true because of development costs, risks, and perceived value.
• Geography: Carbon credits from developing countries are often more affordable. This is due to low land and labor costs, the potential for political unrest, and changing regulations.
• Credit Vintage: The term "vintage" refers to a carbon credit's age. Newer credits tend to have a higher price, in-line with upward quality trends and improving technical investment.
• Verification: All credits receive standard verification in voluntary market scenarios. But some credits receive additional certifications to prove quality. This increases pricing.
• Buyer intent: The reason buyers purchase carbon credits is also a factor. Do they simply want to offset carbon emissions or do they want to support specific co-benefits? Projects that promise emissions reductions and support local communities and biodiversity cost more.
• Compliance: Increasing regulatory pressure—like CORSIA, the global aviation offsetting scheme, for example—makes credits that align with eligibility criteria more in demand, so they naturally command higher prices.

Sylvera’s Market Data, which includes Pricing Data, makes it easy to monitor pricing trends, understand why some credits cost more than others, and make smarter purchases.

For example, with our tool you can easily see that credits from well-rated ARR projects receive $5 more per rating band, and you can dig into the factors behind pricing and quality. ARR projects, which have seen increased activity recently, have an average of $24 per credit, reflecting both the relatively higher costs of implementing such projects, as well as greater willingness to pay amongst buyers seeking to procure nature-based removals credits.

The current price premium of ~$27 for Sylvera-rated BBB+ projects is fuelled by constrained supply. This kind of data will help you identify quality projects, check supply volumes, and buy the right credits to achieve net zero goals for your company.

Current carbon offset market price benchmarks (2024 → 2025)

So, what can you expect to spend on carbon credits in 2025?

No one can predict the offset market with 100% accuracy. But we can use the data at our disposal to create benchmarks, i.e. average prices for different kinds of carbon credits.

• ARR projects: Short for afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation, the average price for ARR carbon credits is $24.
• IFM projects: Short for improved forest management, the average price for IFM carbon credits is $16 .
• REDD+ projects: Short for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, the average price for REDD+ carbon credits is $7 .
• Biochar projects: Meaning, biomass with carbon capture and storage, the average price for biochar carbon credits is $177.
• DAC projects: Short for direct air capture, the average price for DAC carbon credits is over $500.
• ERW projects: Short for enhanced rock weathering, the average price for ERW carbon credits is over $200.
• BECCS projects: Short for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, the average price for BECCS credits is $389.

As you can see, nature based carbon offset prices are typically lower than tech-based, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) prices. This is because CDR projects fundamentally cost more to implement and generate more durable credits, which are seen as more valuable. Let's dig deeper into this...

NBS vs CDR: a pricing comparison

Nature-based solutions (NBS) projects, like afforestation or improved forest management, produce cheaper credits than carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects, like direct air capture.

Credits from afforestation projects in Africa have an average price of $37. This number lowers to $24 in North America, $16 in South America, and $14 in Asia.

Credits from improved forest management projects have an average price of $17 in North America but just $5 in Asia.

Credits from a new biochar project in Europe can cost as much as $270. Whereas credits from a longer standing South American biochar project can cost $170.

And credits from DAC projects - currently developed mainly throughout North America and Kenya, can range vastly from as low as $125 to as much as $1000. But with ongoing innovation and increasing scale, DAC prices are expected to come down to $100 by 2030.

Why do CDR credits cost so much more? Because CDR projects are perceived to have higher quality and more durability - or permanence - than NBS projects. They also have significantly higher project costs, and a current limited supply.

If you're unfamiliar with the concept of durability, it refers to the length of time a carbon project removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Longer removals are considered more durable, and therefore, more valuable.

There's also a fundamental demand for CDR credits right now. Modern buyers want to minimize their carbon footprints with high-quality, durable credits. CDR projects fit the bill, so the laws of supply and demand help push the price of CDR credits above NBS credits.

Just remember, not every CDR project is worth your investment. Like everything else, some CDR credits are high quality and others aren't. To learn which projects to support, use Sylvera's widely-used Ratings. Doing so will help you invest in high quality carbon credits consistently.

Quality and price: how ratings influence value

As we've seen, high-quality credits are more expensive than low-quality credits. And quality is impacted by numerous things, from project type to buyer intent. Quality is also impacted by ratings.

Independent agencies like Sylvera vet carbon projects to make sure they will remove or reduce greenhouse gas like they claim. Said agencies also evaluate the durability of the carbon removal or reduction. Will the carbon dioxide (or carbon dioxide equivalent) be removed from the atmosphere for 10 to 100 years, 100 to 1,000 years, or 1,000+ years? The longer the removal, the more durable the carbon credit. Finally, agencies assess co-benefits to learn what other advantages a carbon project reveals.

Once this full-scale evaluation is complete, independent agencies assign each carbon project a rating, which reflects the likelihood the project delivers on its claims and generates quality credits. Sylvera's ratings range from D on the low end to AAA on the high end.

Our ratings also tie directly into our pricing model. For example, higher quality credits receive higher price projections. According to our data, buyers should expect to pay +$5 per rating band in ARR projects and +$2 per rating band in REDD+ projects.

What causes the jump? Buyers trust ratings from independent agencies. When they see a AAA rating from Sylvera, they're generally willing to pay more, because they know the carbon credits are quality. They aren't willing to do the same for low quality offsets.

This fact highlights the need for trustworthy data. When you know which projects to invest in—and when you can secure the best prices—you can make better carbon credit investments.

Carbon offset price forecast for 2025

According to the World Bank Group, carbon offset price per ton is down in 2025, but buyers are willing to pay more. Here is a quick carbon offset price chart. That way you have a general idea of what you’ll pay for different credits in such a market:

• Forestry and land use (removals): $15.5/tco2e
• Forestry and land use (avoided emissions): $5.3/tco2e
• Household devices: $3.5/tco2e
• Industrial projects: $1.4/tco2e
• Renewable energy: $1/tco2e

How buyers can budget smartly in a volatile market

Carbon offset credits prices change on a regular basis. How can you secure below market value when purchasing credits for your organization? The answer is data.

When you have access to quality information—who is selling what credits, what similar projects have sold for in the recent past, when credits are typically cheapest, etc.—you can make smarter purchases.

Good news: this is the exact kind of data Sylvera gives you. Access our suite of Market Data tools to monitor price trends, identify budget-aligned projects, and take action at the best time.

Also worth mentioning, you can usually lock in better pricing on quality credits by supporting carbon projects before they generate credits. This is known as pre-issuance. Sylvera's tools in this area will help you identify projects, monitor them for ongoing quality, and ensure you get the credits you paid for.

Navigate this complexity and secure the right carbon credits for your organization

Carbon offset pricing is nuanced and driven by quality.

Companies would rather buy quality credits that fight global warming than risk the fines and public backlash that often accompany low-quality credits—even if high quality offsets cost more.

The challenges outlined above, from volatile pricing and quality variations to the need for real-time market data, show why comprehensive data is essential for smart carbon credit procurement. 

Sylvera's Market Data uniquely addresses these challenges by combining live pricing intelligence, quality ratings, and market activity data in one integrated platform. 

Instead of juggling multiple data sources to understand why ARR projects command quality premiums or which REDD+ projects offer the best risk-adjusted value, buyers can filter, compare, and analyze opportunities across price, quality, and market demand simultaneously. 

With daily data updates; customizable dashboards that drill down by project type, geography, and rating; and insights into buyer behavior and retirement patterns; Sylvera transforms the complex, fragmented carbon market into actionable intelligence. 

Want pricing insights and ratings before you buy? Request a demo of Sylvera today.